Manchester Invite Merges: Accurate Predictor?


This post is for all of those statisticians out there!!!  One of the main reasons teams participate in Manchester Invitational is to truly see where they rate versus their division and the entire state.  Same course, same day, maybe same race situations can reveal valuable information for teams to build on for the second half of their seasons.  But, is Manchester Invitational (MI) an accurate predictor?  With the freshmen races, some teams opt to have their freshmen, no matter how good, to participate, thus weakening their varsity team, which in turn distorts a team’s true status in the state.  Is this the right decision?  Does Manchester Invitational have any affect on the outcome of the State Divisional Championships, and even with a different course, Meet of Champions.

So with all that said, merges provide us with an opportunity to study.  We have provided abbreviated versions below of 2014 MI merges . After the 2014 merges, keep scrolling to see a comparison of how the 2013 merges worked out at the Division Championships and MOCs!!! Warning: this is a long post!


2014 MANCHESTER INVITATIONAL FULL STATE MERGE

BOYS INDIVIDUALS                                                                                TEAM SCORES

Place Athlete Year Team Time Place Team Score
1 Moskowitz, Eli 12 Souhegan NH 15:41.7 1 Pinkerton NH 76
2 Carbone, Justin 11 Exeter NH 16:06.1 2 Timberlane NH 178
3 Gagnon, Abram 12 Manch Central NH 16:18.5 3 Coe-Brown NH 187
4 O’Brien, Patrick 10 Oyster River NH 16:20.6 4 Oyster River NH 192
5 Daly, Scott 12 Bedford NH 16:26.1 5 Londonderry NH 266
6 Kimball, Liam 11 Timberlane NH 16:31.2 6 Alvirne NH 302
7 Reaney, Brian 12 Portsmouth NH 16:31.4 7 Manch Central NH 324
8 Repucci, Dom 11 Hopkinton NH 16:36.3 8 Concord NH 354
9 Sevilla, Nick 11 Pinkerton NH 16:39.2 9 Winnacunnet NH 354
10 Alexander, Saveliev 11 Concord NH 16:40.0 10 Nashua North NH 359
11 Cooney, Nolan 11 Manch Central NH 16:43.8 11 Nashua South NH 380
12 Fontaine, Josh 12 Lebanon NH 16:47.5 12 Goffstown NH 412
13 Coraluzzo, Anthony 12 Dover NH 16:49.3 13 Bishop Guertin N 419
14 Hanlon, Tom 11 Pinkerton NH 16:52.6 14 Souhegan NH 491
15 Smith, Austin 12 Pinkerton NH 16:59.1 15 Windham NH 494
16 Rees, Nate 12 Pinkerton NH 17:00.8 16 Derryfield NH 500
17 Janik, Luke 12 Winnacunnet NH 17:02.8 17 Hanover NH 517
18 Pepper, Smith 12 Concord NH 17:03.9 18 Monadnock NH 526
19 Fischer, Christopher 11 Bishop Guertin N 17:05.9 19 Portsmouth NH 584
20 Stone, Will 12 Oyster River NH 17:09.1 20 Dover NH 588
21 Hoerner, Brett 12 Manch Memorial 17:11.3 21 Bedford NH 604
22 Clark, Owen 12 Pinkerton NH 17:13.1 22 Exeter NH 629
23 Janik, Adam 12 Winnacunnet NH 17:14.6 23 Pelham NH 651
24 Saviano, Peter 12 Timberlane NH 17:15.2 24 Lebanon NH 661
25 Lanternier, Sam 11 Pinkerton NH 17:16.1 25 Salem NH 682
26 Richards, Zach 10 Coe-Brown NH 17:19.1 26 Merrimack NH 691
27 Elmour, James 10 Monadnock NH 17:20.3 27 Hollis/Brookline 739
28 Westhoff, Kendall 11 Alvirne NH 17:21.0 28 Hopkinton NH 806
29 Busi, James 12 Timberlane NH 17:22.1 29 Manch Memorial 822
30 Farooq, Ehsun 11 Manchester West 17:22.8 30 Ports Christian 980
31 Graves, Calvin 10 Pinkerton NH 17:23.3 31 Trinity NH 995
32 Nelson, Jared 11 Coe-Brown NH 17:25.6 32 Bow NH 1008
33 Dickson, Cameron 11 Londonderry NH 17:26.0 33 Pembroke NH 1021
34 King, Mitch 11 Nashua South NH 17:26.7 34 Con-Val NH 1166
35 DeLuca, Davio 10 Coe-Brown NH 17:26.9 35 John Stark NH 1201
36 Caulfield, Neville 11 Oyster River NH 17:30.4 36 Merrimack Valley 1210
37 Settineri, Joe 12 Salem NH 17:30.8 37 Campbell NH 1274
38 Scarponi, Jake 11 Coe-Brown NH 17:32.5 38 St Thomas Aquina 1329
39 Robinson, Matt 12 Pinkerton NH 17:32.7 39 Manchester West 1518

GIRLS INDIVIDUALS                                                                                TEAM SCORES

Place Athlete Year Team Time Place Team Score
1 Doody, Maegan 11 Oyster River NH 18:35.0 1 Coe-Brown NH 53
2 Sansing, Morgan 11 Pinkerton NH 18:53.8 2 Concord NH 132
3 Parker, Hannah 12 Coe-Brown NH 19:08.6 3 Winnacunnet NH 149
4 Danis, Elisabeth 11 Coe-Brown NH 19:10.3 4 Pinkerton NH 207
5 Shea, Cassie 10 Concord NH 19:10.8 5 Souhegan NH 244
6 Schoffield, Kristie 10 Merrimack Valley 19:22.0 6 Merrimack NH 264
7 Pratt, Alli 10 Coe-Brown NH 19:33.5 7 Exeter NH 349
8 Murdock, Shannon 12 Exeter NH 19:38.5 8 Windham NH 369
9 Gardner, Faith 12 Fall Mountain NH 19:38.9 9 Oyster River NH 384
10 Hecox, Casey 12 Derryfield NH 19:43.0 10 Manch Central NH 388
11 Gardner, Hope 12 Fall Mountain NH 19:45.5 11 Hanover NH 413
12 Clark, Maddie 10 Hopkinton NH 19:51.3 12 Bedford NH 420
13 Hunt, Madeleine 10 Souhegan NH 19:52.8 13 Monadnock NH 493
14 Scibisz, Alli 12 Winnacunnet NH 20:03.2 14 Alvirne NH 500
15 Waters, Erin 12 Concord NH 20:19.4 15 Hollis/Brookline 533
16 Saunders, Shaylyn 10 Alvirne NH 20:20.9 16 Nashua North NH 553
17 Gaughan, Jackie 9 Exeter NH 20:21.7 17 Londonderry NH 588
18 Laskowsky, Brooke 11 Coe-Brown NH 20:29.6 18 John Stark NH 628
19 Tilley, Kristen 12 Windham NH 20:31.0 19 St Thomas Aquina 644
20 Harris, Emily 12 Manch Central NH 20:34.3 20 Fall Mountain NH 646
21 Scannell, Meg 11 Coe-Brown NH 20:34.9 21 Dover NH 652
22 Cramton, Sarah 11 Hollis/Brookline 20:35.8 22 Bow NH 675
23 Arsenault, Kelly 10 Winnacunnet NH 20:35.8 23 Hopkinton NH 706
24 Vaillancourt, Ariel 11 Pinkerton NH 20:38.8 24 Portsmouth NH 725
25 Nadeau, Sarah 11 Hopkinton NH 20:40.7 25 Nashua South NH 824
26 Cormier, Julia 11 Coe-Brown NH 20:44.3 26 Trinity NH 826
27 Gendron, Liberty 12 Goffstown NH 20:45.0 27 Goffstown NH 860
28 Carillo, Bailey 9 Merrimack NH 20:46.4 28 Milford NH 871
29 Cestrone, Amanda 12 Winnacunnet NH 20:47.9 29 Pelham NH 893
30 House, Sarah 11 Merrimack NH 20:48.0 30 Con-Val NH 912
31 Hiatt, Melissa 12 St Thomas Aquina 20:49.1 31 Timberlane NH 912
32 Pearl, Samantha 12 Concord NH 20:50.4 32 Manch Memorial 913
33 Webb, Sophie 12 Oyster River NH 20:51.3 33 Merrimack Valley 1024
34 Earley, Shannon 10 Souhegan NH 20:51.6 34 Lebanon NH 1131
35 Braley, Laura 11 Concord NH 20:52.2 35 Campbell NH 1284
36 Power, Molly 11 Winnacunnet NH 20:52.6 36 Pembroke NH 1306
37 Slavin, Danielle 9 Oyster River NH 20:54.5 37 Ports Christian 1607
38 Bellomo, Katie 10 Alvirne NH 20:59.9 38 Salem NH 1660
39 Scannell, Katie 12 Coe-Brown NH 21:01.3
40 Zylak, Rebecca 11 Goffstown NH 21:04.4

2014 DIVISION 2 MERGE

GIRLS INDIVIDUALS                                                                                TEAM SCORES

Pl Name G School Time Place  Team 1 2 3 4 5 6 7  Total
1 Doody, Maegan 11 Oyster River NH 18:35.0 1 Coe-Brown 2 3 5 7 9 11 16 26
2 Parker, Hannah 12 Coe-Brown NH 19:08.6 2 Souhegan 6 14 17 22 30 32 37 89
3 Danis, Elisabeth 11 Coe-Brown NH 19:10.3 3 Windham 8 21 25 28 46 51 53 128
4 Schoffield, Kristie 10 Merrimack Valley 19:22.1 4 Oyster River 1 13 15 52 55 56 136
5 Pratt, Alli 10 Coe-Brown NH 19:33.5 5 Hanover 20 24 27 31 40 47 142
6 Hunt, Madeleine 10 Souhegan NH 19:52.8 6 Hollis/Brookline 10 33 41 42 62 67 188
7 Laskowsky, Brooke 11 Coe-Brown NH 20:29.6 7 St. Thomas 12 19 29 75 79 97 98 214
8 Tilley, Kristen 12 Windham NH 20:31.0 8 John Stark 23 34 44 54 61 76 216
9 Scannell, Meg 11 Coe-Brown NH 20:34.9 9 Trinity 26 35 58 71 82 96 272
10 Cramton, Sarah 11 Hollis/Brookline 20:35.9 10 Portsmouth 36 48 60 65 73 74 282
11 Cormier, Julia 11 Coe-Brown NH 20:44.3 11 Milford 38 57 63 64 66 81 288
12 Gendron, Liberty 12 Goffstown NH 20:45.0 12 Pelham 18 43 59 84 99 303
13 Hiatt, Melissa 12 St Thomas Aquina 20:49.1 13 Con-Val 39 45 50 83 88 93 305
14 Webb, Sophie 12 Oyster River NH 20:51.3 14 MV 4 68 72 89 90 94 323
15 Earley, Shannon 10 Souhegan NH 20:51.6 15 Leb 49 69 77 78 91 92 95 364
16 Slavin, Danielle 9 Oyster River NH 20:54.5 16 Pembroke 70 80 85 86 87 408
17 Scannell, Katie 12 Coe-Brown NH 21:01.3
18 Zylak, Rebecca 11 Goffstown NH 21:04.4
19 Gillis, Hannah 11 Souhegan NH 21:08.8
20 Harrington, Shaylyn 11 Pelham NH 21:11.7
21 Baughn, Maddie 9 St Thomas Aquina 21:36.8
22 Wittmann, Hannah 10 Hanover NH 21:49.6
23 Pomeroy, Laura 11 Windham NH 21:54.9
24 Lambert, Elise 9 Souhegan NH 22:03.4
25 Ishak, Madeline 11 John Stark NH 22:05.4
26 Torrey, Kay 12 Hanover NH 22:13.7
27 Shpak, Lily 10 Windham NH 22:18.9
28 Kimball, Delaney 11 Trinity NH 22:23.3
29 Goss, Liza 12 Hanover NH 22:25.0
30 Carey, Amanda 11 Windham NH 22:29.7
31 Smith, Molly 12 St Thomas Aquina 22:30.1
32 Culver, Hannah 12 Souhegan NH 22:34.0
33 Wheelan, Katrina 11 Hanover NH 22:35.9
34 Bermingham, Kate 11 Souhegan NH 22:36.9
35 Newsham, Emilie 12 Hollis/Brookline 22:44.7
36 Martin, Laura 9 John Stark NH 22:45.5
37 Mercurio, Kelsey 10 Trinity NH 22:45.9
38 Duncan, Mimi 12 Portsmouth NH 22:46.3
39 Ehrenstein, Emily 10 Souhegan NH 22:49.2

BOYS INDIVIDUALS                                                                                TEAM SCORES

PL Name G School Time Place Team 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 Total
1 Moskowitz, Eli 12 Souhegan NH 15:41.7 1 Coe-Brown 6 7 8 10 20 30 33 51
2 O’Brien, Patrick 10 Oyster River NH 16:20.6 2 Oyster River 2 5 9 17 26 29 31 59
3 Reaney, Brian 12 Portsmouth NH 16:31.4 3 Goffstown 13 14 19 36 51 56 85 133
4 Fontaine, Josh 12 Lebanon NH 16:47.5 4 Windham 11 12 34 39 58 84 88 154
5 Stone, Will 12 Oyster River NH 17:09.1 5 Souhegan 1 24 38 46 48 50 65 157
6 Richards, Zach 10 Coe-Brown NH 17:19.1 6 Hanover 22 25 27 41 54 60 71 169
7 Farooq, Ehsun 11 Manchester West 17:22.7 7 Portsmouth 3 18 42 62 63 81 188
8 Nelson, Jared 11 Coe-Brown NH 17:25.6 8 Leb 4 23 32 67 78 101 204
9 DeLuca, Davio 10 Coe-Brown NH 17:26.9 9 Pelham 16 28 47 49 68 82 95 208
10 Caulfield, Neville 11 Oyster River NH 17:30.4 10 Hollis/Brookline 15 35 40 66 72 76 80 228
11 Scarponi, Jake 11 Coe-Brown NH 17:32.5 11 Trinity 43 53 69 73 74 77 104 312
12 Khoury, Nick 12 Windham NH 17:33.9 12 Pembroke 21 61 70 83 86 97 321
13 Caron, Peter 11 Windham NH 17:37.2 13 Con-Val 37 55 79 87 98 99 107 356
14 Brannen, Jackson 10 Goffstown NH 17:39.2 14 John Stark 52 57 75 92 96 103 372
15 Shaw, Matt 12 Goffstown NH 17:41.4 15 MV 44 59 89 90 93 100 105 375
16 Jackson, Cameron 11 Hollis/Brookline 17:47.3 16 St. Thomas 45 64 91 94 102 106 396
17 Blanchard, Bryce 11 Pelham NH 17:48.5
18 Barth, Cameron 12 Oyster River NH 17:52.0
19 Leighton, Christian 12 Portsmouth NH 17:52.5
20 Murphy, Cody 12 Goffstown NH 17:53.9
21 Flanagan, Zach 11 Coe-Brown NH 17:54.6
22 Anderson, Kam 11 Pembroke NH 17:55.8
23 Herron, Felix 11 Hanover NH 18:00.2
24 Harriman, Raphael 10 Lebanon NH 18:03.4
25 Earley, Garrett 10 Souhegan NH 18:09.2
26 Glueck, Adam 10 Hanover NH 18:17.3
27 Gordon, Evan 11 Oyster River NH 18:18.0
28 Mosenthal, Walter 12 Hanover NH 18:18.4
29 Vallante, Allan 10 Pelham NH 18:21.2
30 Howland, Jeremy 12 Oyster River NH 18:22.1
31 Snow, Jacob 10 Coe-Brown NH 18:24.1
32 Hackenburg, Kobi 11 Oyster River NH 18:26.3
33 Downs, Brian 11 Lebanon NH 18:41.3
34 Pratt, Chris 10 Coe-Brown NH 18:44.6
35 Gustafson, Jim 12 Windham NH 18:47.7
36 McQuilkin, Adam 9 Hollis/Brookline 18:55.0
37 Parr, Jake 12 Goffstown NH 18:55.1
38 Hunt, Andrew 12 Con-Val NH 18:55.6
39 Behn, Cameron 11 Souhegan NH 18:59.6

2014 DIVISION 1 GIRLS MERGE

GIRLS TEAM SCORES

  1. Concord 55
  2. Winnacunnet 62
  3. Pinkerton 97
  4. Merrimack 119
  5. Exeter 160
  6. Central 164
  7. Bedford 186
  8. Alvirne 197
  9. Nashua North 230
  10. Dover 246
  11. Londonderry 279
  12. Nashua South 314
  13. Timberlane 335
  14. Memorial 342

HOW THE MERGE FARED IN 2013 WITH MOCS

2013 MI GIRLS TEAM MERGE                   2013 MOC FINISH

Score School Rank Score School Rank
67 Coe-Brown 1 33 Coe-Brown 1
142 Winnacunnet 2 112 Pinkerton 2
160 BG 3 132 BG 3
169 Souhegan 4 168 Winnacunnet 4
169 Oyster River 5 195 Concord 5
175 Concord 6 202 Nashua North 6
203 HB 7 215 Hollis/Brookline 7
207 Pinkerton 8 223 Souhegan 8
316 North 9 243 Hopkinton 9
324 Hanover 10 255 Hanover 10
375 Hopkinton 11 288 Central 11
381 Bedford 12 327 Oyster River 12
420 Exeter 13 329 Bow 13
443 St. Thomas 14 336 Bedford 14
444 Central 15 341 St. Thomas 15
456 Londonderry 16 365 Londonderry 16
494 Merrimack 17 458 White Mountains 17
529 Goffstown 18 508 Pelham 18
536 Con-Val 19 508 Monadnock 19
559 South 20

2013 MI BOYS TEAM MERGE                   2013 MOC FINISH

Score School Rank Score School Rank
103 Pinkerton 1 104 Oyster River 1
133 OR 2 133 Pinkerton 2
228 Souhegan 3 228 Souhegan 3
231 Londonderry 4 231 Coe-Brown 4
248 Nashua South 5 248 Portsmouth 5
254 Portsmouth 6 254 Nashua South 6
263 Bedford 7 263 Timberlane 7
298 BG 8 298 Goffstown 8
318 Timberlane 9 318 Merrimack 9
321 Winnacunnet 10 321 Alvirne 10
371 Coe-Brown 11 371 Londonderry 11
392 Alvirne 12 392 Bedford 12
416 Merrimack 13 416 Prospect Mountain 13
441 MV 14 441 Lebanon 14
461 Goffstown 15 461 Keene 15

 


2013 MI DIVISION 1 GIRLS MERGE                                     2013 DIVISION 1 GIRLS FINISH

1 Winnacunnet 69 1 Winnacunnet 61
2 Bishop Guertin 76 2 Bishop Guertin 80
3 Concord 85 3 Pinkerton 98
4 Pinkerton 99 4 Concord 140
5 Nashua North 160 5 Nashua North 186
6 Bedford 191 6 Bedford 196
7 Exeter 211 7 Central 199
8 Manchester Central 222 8 Londonderry 229
9 Londonderry 231 9 Dover 235
10 Merrimack 246 10 Exeter 274
11 Nashua South 281 11 Timberlane 308
12 Alvirne 284 12 Merrimack 312
13 Dover 286 13 Keene 314
14 Timberlane 299 14 Alvirne 320
15 Manchester Memorial 371 15 South 324

2013 MI DIVISION 2 GIRLS MERGE                                     2013 DIVISION 2 GIRLS FINISH

1 Coe-Brown 38 1 Coe-Brown 26
2 Oyster River 81 2 Hollis/Brookline 101
3 Souhegan 83 3 Hanover 124
4 Hollis/Brookline 96 4 Souhegan 131
5 Hanover 148 5 Oyster River 149
6 St. Thomas Aquinas 198 6 St. Thomas 162
7 Con-Val 239 7 Con-Val 257
8 Goffstown 240 8 Windham 261
9 Windham 254 9 Milford 277
10 Milford 261 10 Portsmouth 278
11 Portsmouth 273 11 Goffstown 281
12 John Stark 287 12 John Stark 297
13 Trinity 287 13 Lebanon 344
14 Pembroke 361 14 Trinity 348
15 Leb NS 15 Kennett 353
16 MV NS 16 Merrimack Valley 413

2013 MI DIVISION 1 BOYS MERGE                                     2013 DIVISION 1 BOYS FINISH

1 Pinkerton 56 1 Pinkerton 97
2 Londonderry 130 2 Nashua South 141
3 Nashua South 142 3 Timberlane 143
4 Bedford 145 4 Bedford 157
5 Bishop Guertin 162 5 Londonderry 186
6 Winnacunnet 177 6 Alvirne 199
7 Timberlane 178 7 Merrimack 207
8 Alvirne 207 8 Keene 213
9 Merrimack 225 9 Winnacunnet 219
10 Manchester Memorial 255 10 Bishop Guertin 235
11 Manchester Central 274 11 Central 239
12 Salem 281 12 Exeter 264
13 Dover 303 13 Memorial 272
14 Exeter 334 14 North 336
15 Concord 349 15 Salem 347
16 Nashua North 410 16 Concord 386

2013 MI DIVISION 2 BOYS MERGE                                     2013 DIVISION 2 BOYS FINISH

1 Oyster River 55 1 Oyster River 74
2 Souhegan 94 2 Souhegan 89
3 Portsmouth 101 3 Coe-Brown 109
4 Coe-Brown 151 4 Portsmouth 133
5 Merrimack Valley 185 5 Goffstown 151
6 Goffstown 188 6 Lebanon 190
7 Lebanon 201 7 Hanover 209
8 Hollis/Brookline 221 8 Merrimack Valley 209
9 Windham 233 9 Hollis/Brookline 233
10 Hanover 237 10 Windham 279
11 Trinity 321 11 Kennett 295
12 Milford 348 12 Milford 308
13 Con-Val 369 13 Trinity 378
14 Pelham 375 14 Sanborn 380
15 St. Thomas Aquinas 399 15 St. Thomas 422
16 John Stark 512 16 Kingswood 439
17 Pembroke 562 17 Plymouth 442

2013 MI DIVISION 3 BOYS MERGE                                     2013 DIVISION 3 BOYS FINISH

1 Monadnock 40 1 Prospect Mtn 110
2 Bow 61 2 Bow 120
3 Hopkinton 62 3 Monadnock 126
4 Derryfield 96 4 Mascenic 162
5 Campbell 125 5 Hopkinton 172
6 Portsmouth C 185 6 Fall Mtn 190
7 Newmarket 217 7 Inter-Lakes 200