Manch Merges: Accurate Predictor of Championships?? 4


Manchester Invitational 2015-1106This post is for all of those statisticians out there!!!  One of the main reasons teams participate in Manchester Invitational is to truly see where they rate versus their division and the entire state.  Same course, same day, maybe same race situations can reveal valuable information for teams to build on for the second half of their seasons.  But, is Manchester Invitational (MI) an accurate predictor?  With the freshmen races, some teams opt to have their freshmen, no matter how good, to participate, thus weakening their varsity team, which in turn distorts a team’s true status in the state.  Is this the right decision?  Does Manchester Invitational have any affect on the outcome of the State Divisional Championships, and even with a different course, Meet of Champions.

So with all that said, merges provide us with an opportunity to study.  We have provided abbreviated versions below of 2015 MI merges.  We have also provided a couple comparisons of how the merge fared in 2014.  Warning: Long Post!!!


2015 MANCHESTER INVITATIONAL STATE AND DIVISIONAL MERGES

Manch State Merge GirlsManchester Invitational 2015-1333

Manch State Merge Boys

Manch D1 Merge Girls

Manch D1 Merge Boys

Manch D2 Merge Girls

Manch D2 Merge Boys

Manch D3 Merge Girls

Manch D3 Merge Boys

 


HOW THE MERGE FARED IN 2014 WITH MOCS

2014 MI GIRLS MERGE                               2014 MOC FINISH

Rank School Score Rank School Score
1 Coe-Brown 53 1 Coe-Brown 36
2 Concord 132 2 Bishop Guertin 121
3 Winnaunnet 149 3 Concord 152
4 Pinkerton 207 4 Winnacunnet 159
5 Souhegan 244 5 Pinkerton 163
6 Merrimack 264 6 Souhegan 228
7 Exeter 349 7 Oyster River 239
8 Windham 369 8 Central 247
9 Oyster River 384 9 Merrimack 281
10 Central 388 10 Bedford 285
11 Hanover 413 11 Exeter 285
12 Bedford 420 12 White Mountains 310
13 Monadnock 493 13 Hanover 313
14 Alvirne 500 14 Fall Mountain 317
15 Hollis-Brookline 533 15 Hopkinton 318
16 North 553 16 Windham 379
17 Londonderry 588 17 Monadnock 423

2014 MI BOYS MERGE                               2014 MOC FINISH

Rank School Score Rank School Score
1 Pinkerton 76 1 Pinkerton 67
2 Timberlane 178 2 Timberlane 144
3 Coe-Brown 187 3 Alvirne 150
4 Oyster River 192 4 Oyster River 174
5 Londonderry 266 5 Londonderry 187
6 Alvirne 302 6 Coe-Brown 197
7 Central 324 7 Concord 199
8 Concord 354 8 Central 228
9 Winnacunnet 354 9 Goffstown 268
10 North 359 10 Inter-Lakes 284
11 South 380 11 South 285
12 Goffstown 412 12 North 297
13 BG 419 13 Mascenic 301
14 Souhegan 491 14 Lebanon 326
15 Windham 494 15 Windham 361

2014 MI D1 GIRLS MERGE                                           2014 D1 GIRLS FINISH

1 Concord 55 1 Bishop Guertin 73
2 Winnacunnet 62 2 Concord 73
3 Pinkerton 97 3 Winnacunnet 75
4 Merrimack 119 4 Pinkerton 102
5 Exeter 160 5 Merrimack 169
6 Central 164 6 Exeter 194
7 Bedford 211 7 Central 210
8 Alvirne 222 8 Bedford 212
9 North 231 9 Alvirne 217
10 Dover 246 10 Londonderry 233
11 Londonderry 281 11 Dover 259
12 South 284 12 North 260
13 Timberlane 286 13 Keene 377
14 Memorial 299 14 South 393
15 Timberlane 410

2014 D2 GIRLS MERGE                                                  2014 D2 GIRLS FINISH

1 Coe-Brown 26 1 Coe-Brown 22
2 Souhegan 89 2 Oyster River 83
3 Windham 128 3 Souhegan 92
4 Oyster River 136 4 Hanover 143
5 Hanover 142 5 Windham 195
6 Hollis-Brookline 188 6 Hollis-Brookline 205
7 St. Thomas 214 7 John Stark 205
8 John Stark 216 8 Portsmouth 213
9 Trinity 272 9 Kennett 235
10 Portsmouth 282 10 St. Thomas 260
11 Milford 288 11 Milford 281
12 Pelham 303 12 Goffstown 317
13 Con-Val 287 13 Pelham 340
14 MV 323 14 Trinity 379
15 Lebanon 364 15 MV 400
16 Pembroke 408 16 Plymouth 434

 
2014 MI D2 BOYS MERGE                                              2014 D2 BOYS FINISH

1 Coe-Brown 51 1 Coe-Brown 61
2 Oyster River 59 2 Goffstown 138
3 Goffstown 133 3 Portsmouth 148
4 Windham 154 4 Oyster River 152
5 Souhegan 133 5 Windham 172
6 Hanover 169 6 Lebanon 176
7 Portsmouth 188 7 Souhegan 184
8 Lebanon 204 8 Kennett 198
9 Pelham 208 9 Kingswood 212
10 Hollis/Brookline 228 10 Hanover 230
11 Trinity 312 11 Pembroke 296
12 Pembroke 321 12 Hollis/Brookline 321
13 Con-Val 356 13 Pelham 336
14 John Stark 372 14 Con-Val 384
15 MV 375 15 Plymouth 386
16 St. Thomas 396 16 Trinity 397

 


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