2016 Manchester Merges! Accurate Predictor??


This post is for all of those statisticians out there!!!  One of the main reasons teams participate in Manchester Invitational is to truly see where they rate versus their division and the entire state.  Same course, same day, maybe same race situations can reveal valuable information for teams to build on for the second half of their seasons.  But, is Manchester Invitational (MI) an accurate predictor?  With the freshmen races, some teams opt to have their freshmen, no matter how good, participate, thus weakening their varsity team, which in turn distorts a team’s true status in the state.  Is this the right decision?  Does Manchester Invitational have any affect on the outcome of the State Divisional Championships, and even with a different course, Meet of Champions.

So with all that said, merges provide us with an opportunity to study.  We have provided links to the 2016 merges provided by Millennium Running.  We have also provided comparisons of how the merge fared in 2015 and links to our previous posts.  Warning: Long Post!!!


2016 MANCHESTER INVITATIONAL STATE AND DIVISIONAL MERGES

Manch State Merge Girls

Manch State Merge Boys

Manch D1 Merge Girls

Manch D1 Merge Boys

Manch D2 Merge Girls

Manch D2 Merge Boys

Manch D3 Merge Girls

Manch D3 Merge Boys


HOW THE MERGE FARED IN 2015 WITH MOCS

2015 MI GIRLS MERGE                                                                  2015 MOC FINISH

Rank School Score Rank School Score
1 Coe-Brown 56 1 Coe-Brown 44
2 Souhegan 135 2 Pinkerton 51
3 Pinkerton 136 3 Souhegan 130
4 Hanover 172 4 Bishop Guertin 135
5 Merrimack 190 5 Alvirne 173
6 Oyster River 207 6 Hanover 175
7 Winnacunnet 238 7 Merrimack 189
8 Alvirne 246 8 Concord 205
9 Concord 263 9 Bedford 206
10 Londonderry 348 10 Oyster River 220
11 Bedford 349 11 Londonderry 273
12 South 386 12 Winnacunnet 303
13 Windham 370
14 Monadnock 418
15 Kennett 425
16 Bow 437
17 Campbell 461

2015 MI BOYS MERGE                                                                    2015 MOC FINISH

Rank School Score Rank School Score
1 Pinkerton 53 1 Pinkerton 48
2 Londonderry 90 2 Londonderry 105
3 Coe-Brown 128 3 North 162
4 Oyster River 158 4 Oyster River 171
5 South 226 5 Coe-Brown 179
6 Alvirne 229 6 Alvirne 183
7 Concord 244 7 Concord 223
8 North 257 8 South 239
9 Timberlane 307 9 Keene 240
10 Hopkinton 382 10 Timberlane 244
11 Bishop Guertin 392 11 Kennett 270
12 Memorial 400 12 Monadnock 348
13 Dover 455 13 Mascenic 349
14 Exeter 457 14 Kingswood 359
15 Merrimack 490 15 Inter-Lakes 377

2015 MI D1 GIRLS MERGE                                                                  2015 D1 GIRLS FINISH

1 Pinkerton 69 1 Pinkerton 30
2 Merrimack 93 2 Bishop Guertin 116
3 Winnacunnet 122 3 Alvirne 140
4 Alvirne 124 4 Concord 158
5 Concord 139 5 Merrimack 159
6 Dover 171 6 Winnacunnet 169
7 Bedford 182 7 Bedford 194
7 Londonderry 182 8 Londonderry 197
9 South 201 9 Dover 217
10 Exeter 223 10 South 259
11 North 233 11 North 268
12 Central 255 12 Keene 290
13 Memorial 354 13 Exeter 310
14 Spaulding 372 14 Central 382
15 Timberlane 399

2015 D2 GIRLS MERGE                                                                        2015 D2 GIRLS FINISH

1 Coe-Brown 29 1 Coe-Brown 22
2 Souhegan 67 2 Hanover 92
3 Hanover 85 3 Souhegan 98
4 Oyster River 92 4 Oyster River 115
5 Windham 146 5 Kennett 223
6 Hollis-Brookline 187 6 Windham 237
7 MV 214 7 Portsmouth 252
8 Trinity 223 8 Con-Val 270
9 Portsmouth 237 9 MV 275
10 Milford 258 10 Milford 279
11 Goffstown 302 11 Hollis/Brookline 282
12 Pelham 308 12 John Stark 291
13 Lebanon 318 13 Trinity 331
14 Pembroke 408 14 Kingswood 366
15 Sanborn 405

 
2015 MI D2 BOYS MERGE                                                                   2015 D2 BOYS FINISH

1 Coe-Brown 36 1 Coe-Brown 65
2 Oyster River 49 2 Oyster River 85
3 Hanover 154 3 Kennett 152
4 Goffstown 177 4 Plymouth 184
5 Windham 183 5 Kingswood 192
6 Hanover 201 6 Hanover 195
7 Pelham 221 7 Pelham 207
8 Souhegan 231 8 Goffstown 260
9 Trinity 249 9 Hollis/Brookline 276
10 MV 277 10 Souhegan 277
11 Pembroke 279 11 Windham 288
12 Portsmouth 289 12 Con-Val 315
13 Hollis/Brookline 301 13 Milford 363
14 Milford 308 14 Trinity 374
15 Lebanon 331 15 Lebanon 391
16 St. Thomas 374 16 Pembroke 406

2014 Comparisons

2013 Comparisons