How Do We Do With Our Previews? (Pretty Good!)

With Season Previews being drafted and around the corner, NHCC is getting excited!  It is always fun to assess our accuracy with “predictions” given all the variables which contribute to a high school cross country season!So, just how good are we here at NHCC with predicting Divisional Championships and MOC outcomes?  Let’s find out!  Below are the summaries of what we predicted contrasted with the real results of the 2018 XC season.

Disclaimer: Many people contribute to these predictions over the course of a given season so is this a perfectly scientific breakdown of accuracy?  Nope, it’s just for fun and we are happy to expose our inaccuracies (and brag about our successes too…)

*The numbers of teams in each category reflect the number of teams eligible to advance to the next level of competition.

Division 3 Boys

Seasonal Preview Predictions

Divisional Championship Preview Predictions

Actual Results

1) Mascenic 1) Mascenic 1) Mascenic
2) Kearsarge 2) Kearsarge 2) Campbell
3) Campbell 3) Trinity 3) Kearsarge
4) Winnisquam 4) Campbell 4) Trinity
5) Monadnock 5) Monadnock 5) Winnisquam

Good start here, if we’re going by a percentage of teams predicted to be in the top 5 vs actual teams appearing in the top 5. The Seasonal Preview got four out of five correct (80%) and the Divisional Championship Preview also got a slightly different four of five (80%) overall. In all three columns we nailed the winning team, but no other perfect hits outside of Mascenic.

Grade: B+

Division 3 Girls

Seasonal Preview Predictions

Divisional Championship Preview Predictions

Actual Results

1) Campbell 1) Campbell 1) Hopkinton
2) Hopkinton 2) Kearsarge 2) Campbell
3) Kearsarge 3) Hopkinton 3) Kearsarge
4)  Mascenic 4) Portsmouth Christian Academy 4) Lebanon
5) Monadnock 5) Lebanon 5) Monadnock

Just about the same success rate here; the Seasonal Preview got four out of five correct (80%) and the Divisional Championship Preview clocked in at four of five (80%) overall as well.  Thanks to a surprising Hopkinton team no perfect matches in the Divisional Preview vs Actual; ironically the higher degree of difficulty Seasonal Preview had two teams slotted in the exact right spot.

Grade: B+

Division 2 Boys

Seasonal Preview Predictions

Divisional Championship Preview Predictions

Actual Results

1) Coe-Brown 1) Coe-Brown 1) Coe-Brown
2) Oyster River 2) Oyster River 2) Oyster River
3) Souhegan 3) Souhegan 3) Hanover
4) Hanover 4) Hanover 4) Souhegan
5) Merrimack Valley 5) Bow 5) Con-Val
6) Hollis-Brookline 6) Con-Val 6) Sanborn

Little bit better here; the Seasonal Preview only predicted four out of six correctly (67%) but the Divisional Championship Preview got five out of six (83%) overall. Nice!  Both the Seasonal and Divisional Preview vs the Actual also called the first two teams perfectly. With three additional teams only off by one spot each, this looks like our best performance so far.

Grade:  A-

Division 2 Girls

Seasonal Preview Predictions

Divisional Championship Preview Predictions

Actual Results

1) Souhegan 1) Coe-Brown 1) Coe-Brown
2) Coe-Brown 2) Con-Val 2) Con-Val
3) Oyster River 3) Souhegan 3) Souhegan
4) Con-Val 4) Oyster River 4) Oyster River
5) Portsmouth 5) Hanover 5) Hanover
6) Milford 6) Milford 6) Milford

Remember we’re going by a percentage of teams predicted to be in the top 6 vs actual teams appearing in the top 6. I mention that because by that metric this was our best work yet! The Seasonal Preview predicted five out of six correctly (83%) and the Divisional Championship Preview not only correctly predicted six out of six (100%) overall, we got all 6 teams in the exact order!!! Outstanding!

Grade: A+

Division 1 Boys

Seasonal Preview Predictions

Divisional Championship Preview Predictions

Actual Results

1) Concord 1) Concord 1) Concord
2) Pinkerton 2) Keene 2) Keene
3) Londonderry 3) Winnacunnet 3) Pinkerton
4) Keene 4) Londonderry 4) Winnacunnet
5) Winnacunnet 5) Pinkerton 5) Londonderry
6) No Team Selected 6) No Team Selected 6) Nashua North
7) No Team Selected 7) No Team Selected 7) Exeter

Pretty good here as well; although unfortunately both the Seasonal Preview and the Division Preview left out the 6th and 7th spots. However the Seasonal Preview and the Divisional Championship Preview both absolutely nailed the top 5 teams, getting all 5 correct!  In addition the Divisional Preview got the top two teams spot on.

Grade:  B+

Division 1 Girls

Seasonal Preview Predictions

Divisional Championship Preview Predictions

Actual Results

1) Bishop Guertin 1) Pinkerton 1) Pinkerton
2) Pinkerton 2) Bishop Guertin 2) Exeter
3) Nashua South 3) Exeter 3) Concord
4) Manchester Central 4) Salem 4) Bishop Guertin
5) Bedford 5) Concord 5) Salem
6) Exeter 6) Bedford 6) Manchester Central
7) Salem 7) Nashua South 7) Bedford

The Seasonal Preview predicted a whopping six out of seven correctly (86%) and the Divisional Championship Preview equaled that feat with a slightly different configuration of six out of seven (86%) overall. Well done!  The Divisional Preview vs the Actual called the winning team correctly but didn’t get any other perfect matches.

Grade: A

Boy’s Meet of Champions

Seasonal Preview Predictions

MOC Preview Predictions

Actual Results

1) Concord 1) Concord 1) Concord
2) Pinkerton 2) Keene 2) Oyster River
3) Londonderry 3) Pinkerton 3) Coe-Brown
4) Coe-Brown 4) Londonderry 4) Keene
5) Winnacunnet 5) Winnacunnet 5) Pinkerton
6) Keene 6) Coe-Brown 6) Winnacunnet

The Seasonal Preview got an impressive five out of six correct (83%) and the Divisional Championship Preview equaled that with again five out of six correct (83%). We only missed on one team, but what a miss! Oyster River ran out of their minds and even though the Divisional Preview stated the Bobcats should not be counted out, no one saw a runner-up finish from them! Again, hitting the top team prediction here but no other perfect predictions to be had.

Grade: A-

Girl’s Meet of Champions

Seasonal Preview Predictions

MOC Preview Predictions

Actual Results

1) Bishop Guertin 1) Pinkerton 1) Exeter
2) Pinkerton 2) Exeter 2) Coe-Brown
3) Nashua South 3) Coe-Brown 3) Con-Val
4) Coe-Brown 4) Con-Val 4) Pinkerton
5) Souhegan 5) Concord 5) Oyster River
6) Oyster River 6) Bishop Guertin 6) Souhegan

The Seasonal Preview got four out of six correct (67%) here and the Divisional Championship Preview equaled that with four out of six correct (67%).  Credit to Oyster River and Souhegan for having a great meet! No perfect matches here either but interestingly the 2-3-4 ranked teams in the Divisional Preview finished in the exact same order, just 1-2-3 at MOC!

Grade: B+

Thanks for reading this, and please understand that our grading system may have been inflated to soothe our delicate egos. Good luck and good health this season; please always try your best to prove us wrong!

Mike Lyford

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