How We Do With Our Previews???

With Season Previews being drafted and around the corner, NHCC is getting excited!  It is always fun to assess our accuracy with “predictions” given all the variables which contribute to a high school cross country season! So, just how good are we here at NHCC with predicting Divisional Championships and MOC outcomes?  Let’s find out!  Below are the summaries of what we predicted contrasted with the real results of the 2019 XC season.

Disclaimer: Many different people contribute to these predictions over the course of a given season so is this a perfectly scientific breakdown of accuracy?  Nope, it’s just for fun and we are happy to expose our inaccuracies (and brag about our successes too…)

*The numbers of teams in each category reflect the number of teams eligible to advance to the next level of competition.

Division 3 Girls

Seasonal Preview Predictions Divisional Championship Predictions Actual Results
1) Hopkinton 1) Hopkinton 1) Kearsarge
2) Campbell 2) Kearsarge 2) Hopkinton
3) Kearsarge 3) Campbell 3) Campbell
4) Portsmouth Christian Academy 4) Portsmouth Christian Academy 4) Portsmouth Christian Academy
5) Lebanon 5) Newmarket 5) Newmarket

Very solid start here with four out of five (80%) correct in the always tricky Seasonal Preview, and a perfect five out of five (100%) selection in the Divisional Preview! With 3,4,5 picked exactly right and 1 and 2 transposed in the Divisional Preview, it’s hard to get much better than this.

Grade A

Division 3 Boys

Seasonal Preview Predictions Divisional Championship Predictions Actual Results
1) Mascenic 1) Mascenic 1) Mascenic
2) Campbell 2) Conant 2) Hopkinton
3) Trinity 3) Hopkinton 3) Conant
4) Kearsarge 4) Campbell 4) Campbell
5) Winnisquam 5) Kearsarge 5) Kearsarge

Only a little bit of a drop-off in this category with three out of five (60%) correct in the Seasonal Preview but a perfect five out of five (100%) selection in the Divisional Preview. The Divisional Preview again had a strong prediction quotient with three exact matches and one set of transposed teams.

Grade: A

Division 2 Girls

Seasonal Preview Predictions Divisional Championship Predictions Actual Results
1) Coe-Brown 1) Souhegan 1) Souhegan
2) Oyster River 2) Merrimack Valley 2) Coe-Brown
3) Souhegan 3) Coe-Brown 3) Merrimack Valley
4) Hanover 4) Kennett 4) Oyster River
5) Milford 5) Hanover 5) Kennett
6) Merrimack Valley 6) Oyster River 6) Hanover

Really good stuff again here with a very good five out of six (83%) teams predicted correctly in the Seasonal Preview and an impressive six out of six (100%) correct in the Divisional Preview.  The placement order in the Divisional Preview was not up to the standard we’ve set so far, but the winning team was predicted correctly and most guesses were only one or two spots off the actual results.

Grade: A-

Division 2 Boys

Seasonal Preview Predictions Divisional Championship Predictions Actual Results
1) Coe-Brown 1) Coe-Brown 1) Coe-Brown
2) Oyster River 2) Oyster River 2) Oyster River
3) Hanover 3) Windham 3) Hanover
4) Sanborn 4) Hanover 4) Windham
5) Con-Val 5) Souhegan 5) Bow
6) Souhegan 6) Con-Val 6) Con-Val

Whoever wrote the previews for this category should get a promotion. Or maybe they should apologize to Bow for leaving them off both lists when they were clearly a high-quality team! Outside of this embarrassing misstep some pretty good predictive analysis here with four out of six (67%) correct in the Seasonal preview (top three exactly right) and five out of six (83%) teams projected correctly in the Divisional Preview. Three teams were perfectly placed in the latter article with one pair of teams transposed. Not terrible!

Grade: B+

Division 1 Girls

Seasonal Preview Predictions Divisional Championship Predictions Actual Results
1) Exeter 1) Bishop Guertin 1) Concord
2) Pinkerton 2) Concord 2) Bishop Guertin
3) Concord 3) Keene 3) Exeter
4) Manchester Central 4) Exeter 4) Keene
5) Salem 5) Bedford 5) Bedford
6) Keene 6) Londonderry 6) Nashua South
7) Bishop Guertin 7) Nashua South 7) Londonderry

Tough sledding here in the Seasonal Preview with only four out of seven (57%) accurately predicted. But major redemption with a perfect seven out of seven (100%) selected in the Divisional Preview! Only one perfect call in that article, but three sets of merely transposed teams is a really good predictive quotient.

Grade: A-

Division 1 Boys

Seasonal Preview Predictions Divisional Championship Predictions Actual Results
1) Concord 1) Keene 1) Concord
2) Winnacunnet 2) Pinkerton 2) Keene
3) Londonderry 3) Concord 3) Pinkerton
4) Keene 4) Winnacunnet 4) Winnacunnet
5) Pinkerton 5) Londonderry 5) Londonderry
6) No Team Selected 6) Nashua North 6) Nashua North
7) No Team Selected 7) Merrimack 7) Merrimack

Some early slippage with only five out of seven teams even mentioned in the Seasonal Preview but a good rebound with all five of those teams appearing in the Actual Results column. An impressive seven out of seven (100%) with four consecutive perfect calls in the Divisional Preview makes this some of our best work.

Grade: A

MOC Girls

Seasonal Preview Predictions MOC Predictions Actual Results
1) Coe-Brown 1) Souhegan 1) Souhegan
2) Exeter 2) Concord 2) Bishop Guertin
3) Bishop Guertin 3) Coe-Brown 3) Concord
4) Pinkerton 4) Bishop Guertin 4) Exeter
5) Oyster River 5) Exeter 5) Coe-Brown
6) No Team Selected 6) Keene 6) Keene

Very tough to predict category here in the pre-season and it showed with three out of six predicted correctly (50%) in the Seasonal Preview. Great work in the MOC preview article however with a strong six out of six (100%) teams accurately predicted and two perfect calls on placement.

Grade: A

MOC Boys

Seasonal Preview Predictions

MOC Predictions

Actual Results

1) Coe-Brown 1) Coe-Brown 1) Coe-Brown
2) Oyster River 2) Concord 2) Pinkerton
3) Concord 3) Keene 3) Concord
4) Keene 4) Pinkerton 4) Keene
5) Winnacunnet 5) Oyster River 5) Oyster River
6) Pinkerton 6) Winnacunnet 6) Londonderry

Finishing strong is what we strive for in races, seasons, and this article! Five out of six (83%) correctly predicted teams and two perfect placements from the Seasonal Preview qualifies as such for sure. In the MOC Prediction article, a different set five out of six (83%) correctly predicted teams and again two perfect placements qualifies as a pretty good outing. Well done Londonderry for appearing on exactly zero predictive lists yet punching a ticket to New Englands!

Grade: A

Thanks for reading, and please understand that our grading system may have been inflated to soothe our delicate egos.

I know that there is a lot uncertainty and stress associated with the upcoming 2020 season. All I can suggest in the way of advice is to actively keep a positive outlook and approach to new challenges, get a lot of sleep, hydrate, and keep running.

Good luck and good health this season; as always please try your best to prove our predictions wrong!

Mike Lyford

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